Investing in an unstable environment

By Brian Pedersen
  February 14. 2013 9:00AM - Last modified: February 14. 2013 9:26AM

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Rarely do economic trends occur without warning, said Richard Frable, managing partner with Liberty Wealth Management of Allentown.
Photo by Brian Pedersen: Richard Frable, managing partner with Liberty Wealth Management of Allentown.


However, while people want to protect their current standard of living, national political factors such as presidential policies and fiscal cliff deals often can affect investments.

"Our goal when we work with our clients is to protect their assets," Frable said.

The Valley firm hosted an economic outlook forum at Lehigh Country Club recently that shed light on some of these concerns for an audience of about 32 people.

One of the issues raised was whether or not the U.S. would see big inflation as a result of the recent deal that narrowly averted the fiscal cliff.

"We don't think it will be, not a serious, statistical inflation," said Paul Hoffmeister, portfolio strategist for Quaker Investment Trust, who led the talk.

However, Hoffmeister said it's quite likely that in an improving economy, gas could rise to more than $4 per gallon.

"Prices are the reason, but because of the way the consumer price index is computed, those prices are not reflected in those industries," he said.

Political policies also affect the economy. Hoffmeister said President Barack Obama advocates public sector investment to support growth while Mitt Romney, who ran against Obama and lost, advocated private sector investment to support growth.

"The thinking is that Romney never advocated a private sector investment plan that worked with the public," Hoffmeister said.

He said with the fiscal cliff deal, one of the pros is that with tax code permanency, there's more certainty for entrepreneurs to take risks.

But the economic uncertainty created by events such as the fiscal cliff also can make large corporations less likely to invest.

"With uncertainty, Air Products is not going to put any capital at risk," Frable said.

In the U.S., the fiscal cliff deal created a marginally improved environment, according to Hoffmeister.

Frable predicted the economy would show growth but with inflation.

The American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012 approved by U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives on Jan. 1 may have permanently extended a number of tax provisions and temporarily extended many others. But it also opens the door to future uncertainty and the issue of whether to raise the nation's debt ceiling, which again could affect investing.


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